Nature climate change: february 2017
ABOUT
Current Issue
Volume 7 Number 2
February 2017
-
Editorial
Keeping it clean
Negative emissions are necessary to meet ambitious climate targets, but in order to achieve these we need both technological advances and an economic environment that promotes such activity.
-
Commentaries
Climate research must sharpen its view
Human activity is changing Earth’s climate. Now that this has been acknowledged and accepted in international negotiations, climate research needs to define its next frontiers.
Jochem Marotzke, Christian Jakob, Sandrine Bony, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Paul A. O’Gorman, Ed Hawkins, Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Corinne Le Quéré, Sophie Nowicki, >Katsia Paulavets, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Bjorn Stevens and Matthias Tuma
Delays in US mitigation could rule out Paris targets
Political upsets could stall coordinated international mitigation action, but emissions and investments over the next few years will have long-term consequences. Any delays to mitigation or cuts to renewable energy research by the US will likely render the 2 °C target unachievable if a global precedent is set.
Benjamin M. Sanderson and Reto Knutti
-
Feature
Snapshot: Extreme Arctic heat
Graham Simpkins
-
Research Highlights
Ecological resilience: Drought sensitivity
Sociology: Public inaction
Hydroclimate: Stronger atmospheric fronts
Climate vulnerability: Drivers of migration
-
News and Views
Climate adaptation: Holistic thinking beyond technology
The countries most vulnerable to climate change impacts are among the poorest in the world. A recent evaluation of Least Developed Countries Fund projects suggests that adaptation efforts must move beyond technological solutions.
Emily Boyd
Mitigation technology: Half full or nearly empty?
Tracking progress toward the Paris 2015 goal is critical to the terms of the agreement. A new analysis shows how various drivers influence CO2 emissions, and indicates that more technological advancements are needed to make deep cuts in global emissions.
See also: Letterby Glen P. Peterset al.
<
Emission scenarios: Explaining differences
Carbon dioxide emission scenarios rely on a number of assumptions about how societies will develop in the future, creating uncertainty in projections. Now, research reveals the sensitivity of emission estimates to some of these assumptions.
See also: Letterby G. Marangoniet al.
CO2 fertilization: Average is best
Increased atmospheric CO2 enhances grassland biomass production under average conditions, but contrary to earlier predictions the effect declines when it gets wetter, drier, or hotter.
Robert S. Nowak
See also: Letterby W. A. Obermeieret al.
-
Perspective
Advancing Australia’s role in climate change and health research
Australia allocates less than 0.1% of health funding to research on health and climate change. This Perspective highlights the country’s strength in the individual disciplines of climate science and health research and calls for bringing these areas together.
-
Review
A third option for climate policy within potential limits to growth
Forty-five years after it was first proposed, climate change has revived debates around the concept of limits to growth. This Review reflects on economic perspectives on limits to growth, and proposes a third option to reduce resistance to climate policies.
Jeroen C. J. M. van den Bergh
-
Letters
Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Socioeconomic scenarios of climate change contain a number of assumptions, which lead to uncertainty in projections. Emission estimates in the scenarios are found to be most sensitive for assumptions about energy intensity and economic growth.
G. Marangoni, M. Tavoni, V. Bosetti, E. Borgonovo, P. Capros, O. Fricko, D. E. H. J. Gernaat, C. Guivarch, P. Havlik, D. Huppmann, N. Johnson, P. Karkatsoulis, I. Keppo, V. Krey, E. Ó Broin, J. Price, D. P. van Vuuren
See also: News and Viewsby Gokul Iyeret al.
Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement
This paper presents interrelated indicators for tracking progress towards the Paris Agreement. Findings show broad consistency with keeping warming below 2 °C, but technological advances are needed to achieve net-zero emissions.
Glen P. Peters, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Sabine Fuss, Robert B. Jackson, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Corinne Le Quéré, Nebojsa Nakicenovic
See also: News and Viewsby Christopher Green
Projected increase in El Niño-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation influences tropical cyclone variability. Under climate change, cyclones around Pacific island nations are projected to increase in frequency during El Niño events and decrease during La Niña events.
Savin S. Chand, Kevin J. Tory, Hua Ye, Kevin J. E. Walsh
Future increases in extreme precipitation exceed observed scaling rates
Extreme rainfall is predicted to increase with warming; however observations show differing rates of change. This study shows rainfall-associated cooling reduces the observed scaling rate. Projections show increased scaling rates in the future particularly for the strongest extremes.
Jiawei Bao, Steven C. Sherwood, Lisa V. Alexander, Jason P. Evans
Impacts of changing rainfall regime on the demography of tropical birds
Increasing dry season length in central Panama reduced population growth rates and viability in nearly one-third of the 20 tropical bird species investigated. Such changes are projected to alter tropical bird community structure in protected areas.
Jeffrey D. Brawn, Thomas J. Benson, Maria Stager, Nicholas D. Sly, Corey E. Tarwater
Reduced CO2 fertilization effect in temperate C3 grasslands under more extreme weather conditions
A temperate grassland experiment shows that CO2 fertilization increases above-ground biomass most strongly under local average environmental conditions, but the effect is reduced or disappears under wetter, drier and/or hotter conditions.
W. A. Obermeier, L. W. Lehnert, C. I. Kammann, C. Müller, L. Grünhage, J. Luterbacher, M. Erbs, G. Moser, R. Seibert, N. Yuan, J. Bendix
See also: News and Viewsby Robert S. Nowak
Macroclimatic change expected to transform coastal wetland ecosystems this century
Research into the impacts of climate change on coastal wetlands has tended to focus on sea-level rise. Now modelling of Gulf of Mexico wetland plant community responses to climate change projects transformative ecological changes this century.
Christopher A. Gabler, >Michael J. Osland, James B. Grace, Camille L. Stagg, Richard H. Day, Stephen B. Hartley, Nicholas M. Enwright, Andrew S. From, Meagan L. McCoy, Jennie L. McLeod
-
Article
Accelerating net terrestrial carbon uptake during the warming hiatus due to reduced respiration
Satellite and atmospheric observations show that the rate of net biome productivity has accelerated over the warming ‘hiatus’ period (1998–2012). This net gain results from reduced respiration, rather than increased primary productivity.
Ashley Ballantyne, William Smith, William Anderegg, Pekka Kauppi, Jorge Sarmiento, Pieter Tans, Elena Shevliakova, Yude Pan, Benjamin Poulter, Alessandro Anav, Pierre Friedlingstein, Richard Houghton, Steven Running
-
Corrigendum
Corrigendum: Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals
Yann Robiou du Pont, M. Louise Jeffery, Johannes Gütschow, Joeri Rogelj, Peter Christoff and Malte Meinshausen
-
Addendum
Addendum: More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions
Markus G. Donat, Andrew L. Lowry, Lisa V. Alexander, Paul A. O’Gorman and Nicola Maher