Nature Climate Change

January 2017 Volume 7, Issue 1

Editorial

Politics of climate change belief p1
doi:10.1038/nclimate3198
Donald Trump’s actions during the election and his first weeks as US president-elect send a strong message about his belief in climate change, or lack thereof. However, these actions may reflect polarization of climate change beliefs, not climate mitigation behaviour.

Commentaries

Climate goals and computing the future of clouds pp3 – 5
Tapio Schneider, João Teixeira, Christopher S. Bretherton, Florent Brient, Kyle G. Pressel, Christoph Schär and A. Pier Siebesma
doi:10.1038/nclimate3190
How clouds respond to warming remains the greatest source of uncertainty in climate projections. Improved computational and observational tools can reduce this uncertainty. Here we discuss the need for research focusing on high-resolution atmosphere models and the representation of clouds and turbulence within them.

Collapsing Arctic coastlines pp6 – 7
Michael Fritz, Jorien E. Vonk and Hugues Lantuit
doi:10.1038/nclimate3188
A holistic and transdisciplinary approach is urgently required to investigate the physical and socio-economic impacts of collapsing coastlines in the Arctic nearshore zone.

Research Highlights

Pollution: CO2 modifies nanoparticles | Business and environment: Working less reduces emissions | Atmospheric science: Guano cools Arctic | Climate vulnerability: Impacts on rural schooling

News and Views

Perspectives

Industrial ecology in integrated assessment models pp13 – 20
Stefan Pauliuk, Anders Arvesen, Konstantin Stadler and Edgar G. Hertwich
doi:10.1038/nclimate3148
An in-depth review of five major integrated assessment models from an industrial ecology perspective reveals differences between the fields regarding the modelling of linkages in the industrial system.

Steps to overcome the North–South divide in research relevant to climate change policy and practice pp21 – 27
Malgorzata Blicharska, Richard J. Smithers, Magdalena Kuchler, Ganesh K. Agrawal, José M. Gutiérrez, Ahmed Hassanali, Saleemul Huq, Silvia H. Koller, Sugata Marjit, Hassan M. Mshinda, Hj Hassan Masjuki, Noel W. Solomons, Johannes Van Staden and Grzegorz Mikusiński
doi:10.1038/nclimate3163
The global North dominates climate change research, but contributions from the South are needed to address this global issue. This Perspective examines the North–South divide and proposes actions, across a range of scales and actors, that may help bridge the divide.

Review

IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks pp28 – 37
Brian C. O’Neill, Michael Oppenheimer, Rachel Warren, Stephane Hallegatte, Robert E. Kopp, Hans O. Pörtner, Robert Scholes, Joern Birkmann, Wendy Foden, Rachel Licker, Katharine J. Mach, Phillippe Marbaix, Michael D. Mastrandrea, Jeff Price, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Jean-Pascal van Ypersele and Gary Yohe
doi:10.1038/nclimate3179
This Review assesses the reasons for concern framework, a key component of IPCC assessments which communicates risk associated with climate change. The study identifies limitations as well as points to extensions which would offer additional metrics.

Letters

Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals pp38 – 43
Yann Robiou du Pont, M. Louise Jeffery, Johannes Gütschow, Joeri Rogelj, Peter Christoff and Malte Meinshausen
doi:10.1038/nclimate3186
Five equitable approaches to mitigation are investigated: the authors find that most developing countries are more ambitious than the average, whilst if developed nations and China adopted the average of the approaches the gap between INDCs and a 2 °C pathway would narrow.
See also: News and Views by Dimitri Zenghelis

Wireless sensors linked to climate financing for globally affordable clean cooking pp44 – 47
Tara Ramanathan, Nithya Ramanathan, Jeevan Mohanty, Ibrahim H. Rehman, Eric Graham and Veerabhadran Ramanathan
doi:10.1038/nclimate3141
Data from 4,038 households in India show wireless sensors could make clean energy solutions affordable for those at the bottom of the energy pyramid.

The future intensification of hourly precipitation extremes pp48 – 52
Andreas F. Prein, Roy M. Rasmussen, Kyoko Ikeda, Changhai Liu, Martyn P. Clark and Greg J. Holland
doi:10.1038/nclimate3168
Climate change is causing increases in extreme rainfall across the United States. This study uses observations and high-resolution modelling to show that rainfall changes related to rising temperatures depend on the available atmospheric moisture.

A re-examination of the projected subtropical precipitation decline pp53 – 57
Jie He and Brian J. Soden
doi:10.1038/nclimate3157
Projected decreases in subtropical rainfall have previously been attributed to enhanced moisture transport or atmospheric circulation changes. New research shows that neither is the key mechanism, and instead greater land–sea temperature contrast in response to direct radiative forcing dominates.
See also: News and Views by Robin Chadwick

Meltwater produced by wind–albedo interaction stored in an East Antarctic ice shelf pp58 – 62
J. T. M. Lenaerts, S. Lhermitte, R. Drews, S. R. M. Ligtenberg, S. Berger, V. Helm, C. J. P. P. Smeets, M. R. van den Broeke, W. J. van de Berg, E. van Meijgaard, M. Eijkelboom, O. Eisen and F. Pattyn
doi:10.1038/nclimate3180
Surface melt has been tied to the collapse of Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves. This study illustrates that warmer temperatures associated with katabatic winds drive similar processes in an East Antarctic ice shelf, highlighting vulnerability to disintegration.
See also: News and Views by Martin Siegert

Greenhouse gas emissions intensity of global croplands pp63 – 68
Kimberly M. Carlson, James S. Gerber, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Mario Herrero, Graham K. MacDonald, Kate A. Brauman, Petr Havlik, Christine S. O’Connell, Justin A. Johnson, Sassan Saatchi and Paul C. West
doi:10.1038/nclimate3158
Global high-resolution crop-specific estimates of greenhouse gas emissions intensity (in 2000) reveal that certain cropping practices contribute disproportionately to emissions, making them suitable targets for climate mitigation policies.

Articles

Mitigation potential and global health impacts from emissions pricing of food commodities pp69 – 74
Marco Springmann, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Sherman Robinson, Keith Wiebe, H. Charles J. Godfray, Mike Rayner and Peter Scarborough
doi:10.1038/nclimate3155
A coupled agriculture and health modelling framework shows that levying greenhouse gas taxes on food commodities could be a health-promoting climate policy in high-, mid-, and low-income economies.

Unequal household carbon footprints in China pp75 – 80
Dominik Wiedenhofer, Dabo Guan, Zhu Liu, Jing Meng, Ning Zhang and Yi-Ming Wei
doi:10.1038/nclimate3165
Households’ carbon footprints often differ with wealth and level of consumption. This study shows the urban rich disproportionally contribute to the Chinese carbon footprint, whilst overall household footprints are growing with increased consumerism.

Ocean acidification can mediate biodiversity shifts by changing biogenic habitat pp81 – 85
Jennifer M. Sunday, Katharina E. Fabricius, Kristy J. Kroeker, Kathryn M. Anderson, Norah E. Brown, James P. Barry, Sean D. Connell, Sam Dupont, Brian Gaylord, Jason M. Hall-Spencer, Terrie Klinger, Marco Milazzo, Philip L. Munday, Bayden D. Russell, Eric Sanford, Vengatesen Thiyagarajan, Megan L. H. Vaughan, Stephen Widdicombe and Christopher D. G. Harley
doi:10.1038/nclimate3161
How ocean acidification will impact coastal biogenic habitats is unclear. This study predicts that indirect effects on habitat-forming organisms, combined with direct effects on biodiversity, will cause changes in structural complexity and extent of these habitats.