Blog

Shifting risk of plant pathogens

Global crop production is impacted by pathogens and pests which damage plants, such as these lesions on a rice leaf caused by brown spot disease. Writing in this issue, Bebber et al. model the impact of future temperature changes on infection risk for 12 major crop species by 80 major pathogens. They find increased risk tracks with increased yields at high latitudes, and predict shifts in pathogen assemblies in the USA, Europe and…

Image: Agriology / Alamy Stock Photo. Cover Design: Valentina Monaco

Editorial

Editorial | 05 August 2021

Pathogens, precipitation and produce prices

Crop production and food security remain one of the primary concerns in a changing world. Research and comments in this issue highlight the various threats to our produce and the carry-over effects of food shocks.

Comment

Comment | 19 July 2021

Climate hazards are threatening vulnerable migrants in Indian megacities

In recent decades, India has witnessed a rapid pace of migration from areas with intensive agriculture to populated megacities, which are faced with increasing threat from climate hazards. Greater attention is needed for vulnerable new migrants who lack necessary resources when designing adaptation and mitigation policies.

• Vittal Hari
• Suman Dharmasthala
• Rohini Kumar

Comment | 29 July 2021

Emissions estimations should embed a precautionary principle

To align their portfolios with the Paris Agreement, investors need to know the emissions of companies they invest in. Estimating these should start from a precautionary principle that disincentivizes free-riding and protects the planet.

• Andreas G. F. Hoepner
• Joeri Rogelj

Advertisement Feature

Taking lithium-ion batteries to the next level

Atomic probe tomography and secondary ion mass spectrometry can help make lithium-ion batteries that last longer and recharge faster.

Books & Arts

Books & Arts | 05 August 2021

On our bookshelf

• Bronwyn Wake

Research Highlights

Research Highlight | 05 August 2021

Ghostly conduits

• Alyssa Findlay

Research Highlight | 05 August 2021

Stronger and more drylines

• Baird Langenbrunner

Research Highlight | 05 August 2021

Buildings at risk

• Bronwyn Wake

Research Highlight | 05 August 2021

Climate amenities

• Lingxiao Yan

Research Highlight | 05 August 2021

Bird–plant dispersal limits

• Tegan Armarego-Marriott

Research Highlight | 05 August 2021

Pan-African simulations

• Baird Langenbrunner

Research Highlight | 05 August 2021

Flexible regulations

• Lingxiao Yan

Research Highlight | 05 August 2021

Dulled dragonfly displays

• Tegan Armarego-Marriott

News & Views

News & Views | 05 August 2021

Litigation needs the latest science

Litigation is growing in importance as a way to achieve mitigation and equity in the face of ongoing climate change. Research now shows that currently cases are not using the latest state-of-the-art attribution science, and doing so could improve causation determination.

• Lindene E. Patton

News & Views | 29 July 2021

New insights into future tropical climate change

The difference between tropical east and west Pacific sea-surface temperatures affects local and global climate, and most climate models suggest a weaker future gradient despite a recent observed increase. Research now suggests the recent trends are due to a transient delay in east Pacific warming driven by cold water upwelling and aerosols.

• Malte F. Stuecker

News & Views | 12 July 2021

Some countries donate blue carbon

Climate change mitigation and adaptation, including through nature-based measures, are urgently needed. Now mapping and valuation of global vegetated coastal and marine blue carbon ecosystems shows how interlinked countries are when dealing with climate change.

• Tiziana Luisetti

News & Views | 05 August 2021

Will yield gains be lost to disease?

Climate change is having a profound impact on modern agriculture and plant health. Now research suggests that while crop yields may increase at high latitudes in light of climate change, these gains could be severely impacted by parallel shifts in disease risk.

• Diane G. O. Saunders

News & Views | 05 August 2021

Water, water not everywhere

• Baird Langenbrunner

Articles

Article | 28 June 2021

Filling the evidentiary gap in climate litigation

Legal cases to force governments to reduce emissions or to pursue compensation for climate change-related losses are increasing. The scientific evidence used in such cases is found to be lagging behind state-of-the-art climate science; using up-to-date methodologies could improve causation claims.

• Rupert F. Stuart-Smith
• Friederike E. L. Otto
• Thom Wetzer

Article | 02 August 2021

A sustainable development pathway for climate action within the UN 2030 Agenda

Current action is insufficient to meet both the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals. Integrated model-based analysis shows that strong interventions across many dimensions, together with ambitious lifestyle change, are needed to enable real progress towards the UN Agenda 2030.

• Bjoern Soergel
• Elmar Kriegler
• Alexander Popp

Article | 05 August 2021

The adverse consequences of global harvest and weather disruptions on economic activity

Extreme weather events such as heatwaves and droughts are likely to occur more often under climate change. Such events can have an indirect effect on countries through global agricultural markets and food prices; this impact is stronger for higher-income than lower-income countries.

• Jasmien De Winne
• Gert Peersman

Article | 08 July 2021

Impact of 1, 2 and 4 °C of global warming on ship navigation in the Canadian Arctic

Shipping routes through the Canadian Arctic are examined under 1, 2 and 4 °C global warming across four vessel classes, including ice breakers, Arctic community resupply ships, and passenger and private vessels. All routes show longer shipping seasons and navigability as a result of sea ice loss.

• Lawrence R. Mudryk
• Jackie Dawson
• Mike Brady

Article | 05 August 2021

Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is currently strong, but transition to its weak mode could see significant changes in the climate system. This work presents an observation-based early-warning system for such transitions and shows that the AMOC may be approaching a transition.

• Niklas Boers

Article | 26 July 2021

Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes

Changes in extreme heat are often calculated as anomalies above a reference climatology. A different definition—week-day heatwaves surpassing the current record by large margins—shows that their occurrence probabilities depend on warming rate, not level, and are higher than during recent decades.

• E. M. Fischer
• S. Sippel
• R. Knutti

Article | 29 July 2021

Eastern equatorial Pacific warming delayed by aerosols and thermostat response to CO2 increase

The tropical Pacific east–west temperature gradient intensified recently, but climate models do not reproduce this, and they also predict future weakening. This discrepancy is attributed to a competition between long-term weakening and transient strengthening from aerosols and ocean equatorial upwelling.

• Ulla K. Heede
• Alexey V. Fedorov

Article | 12 July 2021 | Open Access

The blue carbon wealth of nations

Blue carbon ecosystems take up and store substantial amounts of carbon. This represents an important ecosystem service in the context of climate change, with coastal ecosystems contributing nearly US$200 bn yr−1 to blue carbon wealth.

• Christine Bertram
• Martin Quaas
• Wilfried Rickels

Article | 05 August 2021

Plant pathogen infection risk tracks global crop yields under climate change

The authors model the impact of future temperature changes on infection risk for 12 major crops from 80 fungal and oomycete plant pathogens. They find increased risk, as well as crop yield, at higher latitudes and predict major shifts in pathogen assemblages in the United States, Europe and China.

• Thomas M. Chaloner
• Sarah J. Gurr
• Daniel P. Bebber

Amendments & Corrections

Publisher Correction | 14 June 2021

Publisher Correction: Reflections and projections on a decade of climate science

• Veronika Eyring
• Vimal Mishra
• Sander van der Linden

Publisher Correction | 18 May 2021

Publisher Correction: Record warming at the South Pole during the past three decades

• Kyle R. Clem
• Ryan L. Fogt
• James A. Renwick

Publisher Correction | 21 May 2021

Publisher Correction: Carbon tariffs

• Lingxiao Yan