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Nature Climate Change December 2021

Volume 11 Issue 12, December 2021

Warming accelerates Southern Ocean flow

Understanding the impacts of climate change on circulation in the Southern Ocean is limited by its remoteness and the lack of historical observations. Writing in this issue, Shi et al. use a combination of observations, CMIP6 and eddy-resolving models to show that acceleration of Southern Ocean zonal flow has emerged in recent decades due to uneven ocean warming.

See Shi et al. and News & Views by Stewart

Image: Mike Hill/Stone/Getty. Cover Design: Valentina Monaco

Editorial

Editorial | 01 December 2021

Bridging research and policy

This month, Nature Climate Change formally introduces a new content type, Policy Brief. We hope it will help to bridge the gap between researchers and policy professionals.

Correspondence

Correspondence | 15 November 2021

Climate change affects land-disposed waste

• Xunchang Fei
• Mingliang Fang
• Yao Wang

Comment

Comment | 11 November 2021

Advancing transdisciplinary adaptation research practice

Transdisciplinary research is increasingly seen as critical for advancing climate change adaptation. Operationalizing transdisciplinary research in the global South, however, confronts ingrained cultural and systemic barriers to participatory research.

• Silvia Serrao-Neumann
• Fabiano de Araújo Moreira
• Gabriela Marques Di Giulio

Comment | 17 November 2021

Improving the social cost of nitrous oxide

The social cost of nitrous oxide does not account for stratospheric ozone depletion. Doing so could increase its value by 20%. Links between nitrous oxide and other nitrogen pollution impacts could make mitigation even more compelling.

• David R. Kanter
• Claudia Wagner-Riddle
• Gernot Wagner

Comment | 25 November 2021

Studying climate stabilization at Paris Agreement levels

Since the Paris Agreement, the impacts of 1.5 and 2 °C global warming have been emphasized, but the rate of warming also has regional effects. A new framework of model experiments is needed to increase our understanding of climate stabilization and its impacts.

• Andrew D. King
• J. M. Kale Sniderman
• Tilo Ziehn

Comment | 25 November 2021

Trees outside of forests as natural climate solutions

Trees outside of forests are numerous and can be important carbon sinks, while also providing ecosystem services and benefits to livelihoods. New monitoring tools highlight the crucial contribution they can make to strategies for both mitigation and adaptation.

• David L. Skole
• Cheikh Mbow
• Jay H. Samek

Obituary

Obituary | 18 November 2021

Geert Jan van Oldenborgh 1961–2021

Geert Jan van Oldenborgh was a tireless advocate for inclusive science and a pioneer of event attribution science.

• Friederike E. L. Otto

Research Highlights

Research Highlight | 01 December 2021

More than skin deep

• Alyssa Findlay

Research Highlight | 01 December 2021

Antarctic fast-ice trends

• Bronwyn Wake

Research Highlight | 01 December 2021

Shaming as pressure

• Lingxiao Yan

Research Highlight | 01 December 2021

Predators buffer impacts

• Tegan Armarego-Marriott

News & Views

News & Views | 22 November 2021

Risk transfers support adaptation

Finding effective ways to support rural communities in adapting to climate change is critical for building climate-resilient societies. Now research shows the potential of risk-transfer policies for improving adaptation and securing the livelihoods of smallholder farmers.

• Roman Hoffmann

News & Views | 29 November 2021

The question of overshoot

Most emissions scenarios in line with the Paris Agreement have shown a large amount of net-negative CO2 emissions during the second half of this century. A new set of scenarios expands this picture.

• Daniel J. A. Johansson

News & Views | 29 November 2021

Warming spins up the Southern Ocean

Eastward flow in the Southern Ocean is the primary conduit between ocean basins. A comprehensive study of multi-decadal observational records and model experiments reveals that warming in the upper ocean is causing this flow to accelerate.

• Andrew L. Stewart

Policy Brief

Policy Brief | 29 November 2021

Protecting the poor with a carbon tax and equal per capita dividend

We find that if all countries adopt the necessary uniform global carbon tax and then return the revenues to their citizens on an equal per capita basis, it will be possible to meet a 2 °C target while also increasing wellbeing, reducing inequality and alleviating poverty. These results indicate that it is possible for a society to implement strong climate action without compromising goals for equity and development.

• Mark Budolfson
• Francis Dennig
• Stéphane Zuber

Perspectives

Perspective | 18 November 2021

Protect, manage and then restore lands for climate mitigation

Natural climate solutions, along with reduction in fossil fuel emissions, are critical to mitigating climate change and meeting climate goals. This Perspective outlines a hierarchy for decision-making regarding protecting, managing and then restoring natural systems for climate mitigation.

• Susan C. Cook-Patton
• C. Ronnie Drever
• Peter W. Ellis

Perspective | 11 November 2021

The cost of mitigation revisited

Assessing the cost of climate change mitigation is essential to policy-making, yet for many the perception remains that meeting climate goals will entail economic loss. This Perspective unpacks key aspects of mitigation cost estimates to clarify interpretation and discussion of costs.

• Alexandre C. Köberle
• Toon Vandyck
• Joeri Rogelj

Articles

Article | 22 November 2021

Risk transfer policies and climate-induced immobility among smallholder farmers

Smallholder farmers will be impacted substantially by climate change and need to adapt. Agent-based modelling shows that interventions, particularly cash transfer paired with risk transfer mechanisms, lead to increased migration and uptake of cash crops, with higher income and lower inequality.

• Nicolas Choquette-Levy
• Matthias Wildemeersch
• Simon A. Levin

Article | 22 November 2021

A multi-model analysis of long-term emissions and warming implications of current mitigation efforts

Mitigation pathways tend to focus on an end temperature target and calculate how to keep within these bounds. This work uses seven integrated assessment models to consider current mitigation efforts and project likely temperature trajectories.

• Ida Sognnaes
• Ajay Gambhir
• Glen P. Peters

Article | 29 November 2021

Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot

Current emissions scenarios include pathways that overshoot the temperature goals set out in the Paris Agreement and rely on future net negative emissions. Limiting overshoot would require near-term investment but would result in longer-term economic benefit.

• Keywan Riahi
• Christoph Bertram
• Behnam Zakeri

Article | 29 November 2021

Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change

Mitigation pathways allowing for temperature overshoot often ignore the related climate and macroeconomic impacts. Net-zero pathways with limited overshoot could reduce low-probability high-consequence risks and economic loss.

• Laurent Drouet
• Valentina Bosetti
• Massimo Tavoni

Article | 29 November 2021

Health co-benefits of climate change mitigation depend on strategic power plant retirements and pollution controls

Climate mitigation policies often provide health co-benefits. Analysis of individual power plants under future climate–energy policy scenarios shows reducing air pollution-related deaths does not automatically align with emission reduction policies and that policy design needs to consider public health.

• Dan Tong
• Guannan Geng
• Steven J. Davis

Article | 01 November 2021

Anthropogenic emissions and urbanization increase risk of compound hot extremes in cities

Heat extremes threaten the health of urban residents with particularly strong impacts from day–night sustained heat. Observation and simulation data across eastern China show increasing risks of compound events attributed to anthropogenic emissions and urbanization.

• Jun Wang
• Yang Chen
• Yamin Hu

Article | 29 November 2021

Ocean warming and accelerating Southern Ocean zonal flow

The remoteness and paucity of historic observations of the Southern Ocean limit understanding of the effects of climate change on circulation. Using observations, CMIP6 and eddy-resolving models, this Article shows that acceleration of its zonal flow emerged in recent decades as a result of uneven ocean warming.

• Jia-Rui Shi
• Lynne D. Talley
• Wei Liu

Article | 11 November 2021

Climatic limit for agriculture in Brazil

Soybean and maize yields in the Amazon-Cerrado region of Brazil are dependent on water from rain. Warming and drying will make the climate less suitable for agricultural production; changes have already moved 28% of croplands out of their optimum climate space.

• Ludmila Rattis
• Paulo M. Brando
• Michael T. Coe

Article | 25 November 2021

Climate and land-use changes reduce the benefits of terrestrial protected areas

The authors project future rates of temporal and spatial displacement of climate and land-use in protected areas (PAs), and show that more than one-quarter of the world’s PAs are highly threatened, with particular risk to PAs across tropical moist and grassland biomes.

• Ernest F. Asamoah
• Linda J. Beaumont
• Joseph M. Maina

Analysis

Analysis | 29 November 2021

Climate action with revenue recycling has benefits for poverty, inequality and well-being

Climate policy analyses often ignore the possibility of progressive redistribution of carbon tax revenues and assume that mitigation cost will burden the poor in the short term. Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) estimation suggests such redistribution could reduce inequality, alleviate poverty and increase well-being globally.

• Mark Budolfson
• Francis Dennig
• Stéphane Zuber