Nature climate change, Marzo
Volume 11 Issue 3, March 2021
Phenological shifts across kingdoms
In Russia, the first boletes (mushrooms) occur in early July each year, yet climate change impacts the timing of such events. In this issue, Tomas Roslin, Otso Ovaskainen and colleagues use an expansive dataset to investigate phenological shifts across taxa in the former USSR. Long-term mean temperature of a site emerged as a strong predictor of phenological change, with further imprints of trophic level, event timing, site, year and…
Image: Image courtesy of Svetlana Bondarchuk, Sikhote-Alin State Nature Biosphere Reserve. Cover Design: Valentina Monaco.
Editorial
Editorial | 03 March 2021
A year in the making
About 12 months into the COVID-19 pandemic, its immediate and lasting impacts on the climate system and fossil fuel economy are now better understood. These insights will be fundamental to the global recovery — and ideally the green transitions that accompany it — but the implementation will be hard-won.
Comment
Comment | 18 February 2021
Rebooting a failed promise of climate finance
The 2009 pledge to mobilize US$100 billion a year by 2020 in climate finance to developing nations was not specific on what types of funding could count. Indeterminacy and questionable claims make it impossible to know if developed nations have delivered; as 2020 passes, opportunity exists to address these failures in a new pledge.
- J. Timmons Roberts
- Romain Weikmans
- & Danielle Falzon
Research Highlights
Research Highlight | 03 March 2021
The Madden–Julian oscillation strengthens its reach
- Baird Langenbrunner
News & Views
News & Views | 03 March 2021
Drivers of photovoltaic uncertainty
Energy systems scenarios project a wide range of uncertainty in solar photovoltaic capacity, often thought to stem from techno-economic assumptions. Now research shows that the underlying sources of this uncertainty might be different than expected.
- Sibel Eker
Review Articles
Review Article | 03 March 2021
Gender equality in climate policy and practice hindered by assumptions
Gender has a powerful influence on experiences of, and resilience to, climate change. In this Review, the authors provide an overview of four common gender assumptions, and offer four suggestions for a more informed pursuit of gender equality in climate change policy and practice.
- Jacqueline D. Lau
- Danika Kleiber
- & Philippa J. Cohen
Brief Communications
Brief Communication | 08 February 2021
COVID-19-induced low power demand and market forces starkly reduce CO2 emissions
The societal response to the pandemic has reduced global power demand, disproportionally affecting coal power generation and thus leading to a strong CO2 emissions decline. Policy should apply 2020’s lessons to ensure that power sector emissions have peaked in 2018 and go into structural decline.
- Christoph Bertram
- Gunnar Luderer
- & Ottmar Edenhofer
Collection:
Brief Communication | 03 March 2021
Fossil CO2 emissions in the post-COVID-19 era
Growth in CO2 emissions has slowed since the Paris Agreement 5 years ago. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a drop in emissions of about 7% in 2020 relative to 2019, but strong policy is needed to address underlying drivers and to sustain a decline in global emissions beyond the current crisis.
- Corinne Le Quéré
- Glen P. Peters
- & Matthew W. Jones
Articles
Article | 22 December 2020
Impacts of COVID-19 and fiscal stimuli on global emissions and the Paris Agreement
Global emissions could decrease 3.9–5.6% over 5 years due to COVID-19, and the interconnected economy means lockdown-related declines reach beyond borders. As countries look to stimulate their economies, how fiscal incentives are allocated and invested will determine longer-term emission changes.
- Yuli Shan
- Jiamin Ou
- & Klaus Hubacek
Article | 18 January 2021
Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period
Quantifying the temperature impacts of anthropogenic emissions helps monitor proximity to the Paris Agreement goals. Human activities warmed global mean temperature during the past decade by 0.9 to 1.3 °C above 1850–1900 values, with 1.2 to 1.9 °C from greenhouse gases and −0.7 to −0.1 °C from aerosols.
- Nathan P. Gillett
- Megan Kirchmeier-Young
- & Tilo Ziehn
Article | 15 February 2021
Observational constraint on cloud feedbacks suggests moderate climate sensitivity
The response of low clouds to warming is uncertain among climate models and dominates spread in their projections. Satellite estimates of tropical cumulus and stratocumulus cloud feedbacks, derived using surface warming trends, suggest a more moderate climate sensitivity than many models predict.
- Grégory V. Cesana
- & Anthony D. Del Genio
Article | 11 January 2021
Atmospheric dynamic constraints on Tibetan Plateau freshwater under Paris climate targets
Tibetan Plateau runoff projections are uncertain due to precipitation change uncertainty in climate models. Historical precipitation–circulation relationships constrain future wet-season precipitation and runoff change, suggesting worsening water scarcity for the Indus and Ganges river basins.
- Tao Wang
- Yutong Zhao
- & Tandong Yao
Article | 11 January 2021
Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change
Projections of terrestrial water storage (TWS)—the sum of all continental water—are key to water resource and drought estimates. A hydrological model ensemble predicts climate warming will more than double the land area and population exposed to extreme TWS drought by the late twenty-first century.
- Yadu Pokhrel
- Farshid Felfelani
- & Yoshihide Wada
Article | 21 January 2021
Global maps of twenty-first century forest carbon fluxes
Forest management for climate mitigation plans requires accurate data on carbon fluxes to monitor policy impacts. Between 2001 and 2019, forests were a net sink of carbon globally, although emissions from disturbances highlight the need to reduce deforestation in tropical countries.
- Nancy L. Harris
- David A. Gibbs
- & Alexandra Tyukavina
Article | 28 January 2021
Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent
The authors use systematic monitoring across the former USSR to investigate phenological changes across taxa. The long-term mean temperature of a site emerged as a strong predictor of phenological change, with further imprints of trophic level, event timing, site, year and biotic interactions.
- Tomas Roslin
- Laura Antão
- & Otso Ovaskainen
Article | 08 February 2021
Ocean acidification may slow the pace of tropicalization of temperate fish communities
Warming is shifting temperate zones to become more tropical. Natural warming and CO2 vent sites show that acidification buffers warming effects, reducing sea urchin numbers and grazing, thus creating a turf-dominated temperate habitat that is less hospitable to tropical fish than urchin barrens.
- Ericka O. C. Coni
- Ivan Nagelkerken
- & David J. Booth
Analysis
Analysis | 18 January 2021
Systematic review of the outcomes and trade-offs of ten types of decarbonization policy instruments
Ambitious policy instruments are needed to support the transition to low-carbon economies. This systematic review identifies what we know about positive and negative impacts of ten selected instruments on environmental, technological and socioeconomic outcomes, and how to minimize negative impacts.
- Cristina Peñasco
- Laura Díaz Anadón
- & Elena Verdolini
Analysis | 03 March 2021
Sources of uncertainty in long-term global scenarios of solar photovoltaic technology
Analysis of 1,550 future energy scenarios finds that uncertainty in solar photovoltaic (PV) uptake is mainly driven by institutional differences in designing and modelling these scenarios, rather than PV cost assumptions. This suggests more organizational diversity is needed in IPCC scenario design.
- Marc Jaxa-Rozen
- & Evelina Trutnevyte
Amendments & Corrections
Author Correction | 09 February 2021
Author Correction: Systematic review of the outcomes and trade-offs of ten types of decarbonization policy instruments
- Cristina Peñasco
- Laura Díaz Anadón
- & Elena Verdolini
Publisher Correction | 20 January 2021
Publisher Correction: Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework
- Brian C. O’Neill
- Timothy R. Carter
- & Ramon Pichs-Madruga
Publisher Correction | 20 January 2021
Publisher Correction: Soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks mitigate declining water availability in drylands
- Sha Zhou
- A. Park Williams
- & Pierre Gentine
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