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Climate change, Nature October 2018

Dynamic East Antarctic Mosses

Vegetation in the Windmill Islands, East Antarctica, is changing rapidly in response to a drying climate, demonstrated by changes in isotopic signatures measured along moss shoots, moss community composition and declining health. Moss, like that pictured on the cover, serves as a potentially important proxy of coastal climate change in the region.

See Robinson et al.

Image: Jessica Bramley-Alves, University of Wollongong. Cover Design: Tulsi Voralia.


Editorial

Editorial |

Timing is everything

Adjustments in the timing of seasonal events can seem like a relatively subtle impact of climate change, but one with potentially large ramifications for the health of ecosystems and the services they provide.

Correspondence

Correspondence |

Indonesia’s NDC bodes ill for the Paris Agreement
Luca Tacconi


Comment

Comment |

Climate engineering needs a clean bill of health

Climate change will almost certainly cause millions of deaths. Climate engineering might prevent this, but benefits — and risks — remain mostly unevaluated. Now is the time to bring planetary health research into climate engineering conversations.
Colin J. Carlson & Christopher H. Trisos

Comment |

Mitigation scenarios must cater to new users

Climate change mitigation scenarios are finding a wider set of users, including companies and financial institutions. Increased collaboration between scenario producers and these new communities will be mutually beneficial, educating companies and investors on climate risks while grounding climate science in real-world needs.
Christopher Weber, David L. McCollum […]  & Elmar Kriegler

Comment |

The scientific response to Antarctic ice-shelf loss

Biological communities beneath Antarctic ice shelves remain a mystery, hampering assessment of ecosystem development after ice-shelf collapse. Here we highlight major gaps in understanding of the patterns and processes in these areas, and suggest effective ways to study the ecological impacts of ice-shelf loss under climate change.
Jeroen Ingels, Richard B. Aronson & Craig R. Smith

Books & Arts


News & Views

News & Views |

A risk-seeking future
The 2014 IPCC Assessment expresses doubt that the global surface temperature increase will remain within the 2 °C target without deploying risky carbon-capturing or solar radiation-deflecting technologies. New behavioural research suggests that, if the IPCC is right, citizens and policymakers will support such risk-taking.
Greer Gosnell

News & Views |

Atmospheric rivers melt Greenland
Recent years have seen increased melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, contributing to accelerated rates of sea-level rise. New research suggests that this melting occurred due to an increased frequency of atmospheric rivers, narrow filaments of moist air moving polewards.
William Neff

News & Views |

Fast microbes regulate slow soil feedbacks
Earth’s future climate depends, in part, on rapid soil microbial processes that may add up to long-term impacts. Observations from a geothermal gradient reveal decadal increases in soil-carbon loss due to persistent increases in microbial activity.
Elise Pendall


Perspectives

Perspective |

Sequencing to ratchet up climate policy stringency

Meeting the Paris Agreement climate goals requires increasingly ambitious climate policy. A framework for ratcheting up stringency through policy sequencing is proposed and illustrated using the cases of Germany and California, USA.
Michael Pahle, Dallas Burtraw […]  & John Zysman

Letters

Letter |

Differential vulnerability to climate change yields novel deep-reef communities

Deep reefs and their inhabitants are diverse, but environmental change, in particular warming, will cause these reefs found along southeastern Australia to tropicalize with different responses across functional groups, resulting in novel communities by the 2060s.
Martin Pierre Marzloff, Eric C. J. Oliver […]  & Craig R. Johnson


Articles

Article |

High-risk high-reward investments to mitigate climate change

In economic games, players shift to riskier contributions when targets that prevent catastrophic losses cannot be met otherwise, suggesting people are willing to invest in riskier technology when more certain options will not be sufficient to mitigate climate change.
Talbot M. Andrews, Andrew W. Delton & Reuben Kline

Article |

Country-level social cost of carbon

Global estimates of the economic impacts of CO2 emissions may obscure regional heterogeneities. A modular framework for estimating the country-level social cost of carbon shows consistently unequal country-level costs.
Katharine Ricke, Laurent Drouet […]  & Massimo Tavoni
Collection: Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences 2018

Article |

Low clouds link equilibrium climate sensitivity to hydrological sensitivity

The connections between global mean temperature and precipitation responses to CO2doubling (equilibrium climate and hydrological sensitivity) are driven through low-cloud responses to surface warming, according to MIROC5 perturbation experiments.
Masahiro Watanabe, Youichi Kamae […]  & Kentaroh Suzuki


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