Nature – Climate Change, 2016 V6 i6

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June 2016, Volume 6, Issue 6

EDITORIAL		Top
The role of society in energy transitions p539 doi:10.1038/nclimate3051 A research agenda that integrates understanding of the social processes with technical analysis of climate and energy systems is necessary to catalyse a transition to a low-carbon world.

FEATURE		Top
David J. C. MacKay (1967–2016) p540 Ken Wright doi:10.1038/nclimate3040 Physicist; climate and energy innovator.
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS		Top
Agriculture: World without deforestation | Transport: Driving emissions reductions | Coastal carbon dynamics: Influence on calcification |Temperature Trends: Daily ranges
NEWS AND VIEWS		Top

Ecology: Insect thermal baggage pp543 – 544 Caroline Williams doi:10.1038/nclimate3042 Strong positive selection on cold hardiness and relaxed selection on heat hardiness experienced by range-expanding populations may help to explain why ectothermic animals generally have broader thermal tolerance towards the poles, and shed new light on their climate vulnerabilities. See also: Letter by Lesley T. Lancaster

Agricultural impacts: Mapping future crop geographiespp544 – 545 William R. Travis doi:10.1038/nclimate2965 Modelled patterns of climate change impacts on sub-Saharan agriculture provide a detailed picture of the space- and timescales of change. They reveal hotspots where crop cultivation may disappear entirely, but also large areas where current or substitute crops will remain viable through this century. See also: Letter by Ulrike Rippke et al.

 

PERSPECTIVES		Top
Towards a science of climate and energy choices pp547 – 555 Paul C. Stern, Benjamin K. Sovacool and Thomas Dietz doi:10.1038/nclimate3027 This Perspective introduces a special Collection titled Energy, Climate and Society — jointly produced by Nature Energy and Nature Climate Change — that focuses on the social science insights into the linked problems of energy sustainability and climate change.
Agent-based modelling of consumer energy choices pp556 – 562 Varun Rai and Adam Douglas Henry doi:10.1038/nclimate2967 Reducing energy usage is important for climatechange mitigation. This Perspective focuses on the use and promise of agent-based modelling to understand the complexities of energy demand, including consumer behaviour.
A decision science approach for integrating social science in climate and energy solutions pp563 – 569 Gabrielle Wong-Parodi, Tamar Krishnamurti, Alex Davis, Daniel Schwartz and Baruch Fischhoff doi:10.1038/nclimate2917 This Perspective describes a decision science approach to applying sociological and behavioural research to the design of effective climate- and energy-related policies.
Cooperation and discord in global climate policy pp570 – 575 Robert O. Keohane and David G. Victor doi:10.1038/nclimate2937 Deep international cooperation will be needed to tackle climate change. This Perspective looks at how decentralized policy coordination involving partial efforts to build confidence and reduce emissions could foster such cooperation.
Bridging analytical approaches for low-carbon transitions pp576 – 583 Frank W. Geels, Frans Berkhout and Detlef P. van Vuuren doi:10.1038/nclimate2980 Building bridges between three analytical approaches with quite different foundational bases should lead to a more comprehensive understanding of low-carbon transitions, in turn leading to more informed and effective policy decisions.
LETTERS		Top
Adaptation responses to climate change differ between global megacitiespp584 – 588 Lucien Georgeson, Mark Maslin, Martyn Poessinouw and Steve Howard doi:10.1038/nclimate2944 Research now shows that there is a large discrepancy between how much megacities spend on adaptation. Those in developing countries spend considerably less per person than their developed counterparts, despite being the most vulnerable.
Disruption of the European climate seasonal clock in a warming worldpp589 – 594 Christophe Cassou and Julien Cattiaux doi:10.1038/nclimate2969 The application of a new metric of seasonal onset over Europe to existing observational data sets indicates that the start of summer has advanced significantly over recent decades, a trend expected to continue under global warming.
Tundra soil carbon is vulnerable to rapid microbial decomposition under climate warming pp595 – 600 Kai Xue, Mengting M. Yuan, Zhou J. Shi, Yujia Qin, Ye Deng, Lei Cheng, Liyou Wu, Zhili He, Joy D. Van Nostrand, Rosvel Bracho, Susan Natali, Edward. A. G. Schuur, Chengwei Luo, Konstantinos T. Konstantinidis, Qiong Wang, James R. Cole, James M. Tiedje, Yiqi Luo and Jizhong Zhou doi:10.1038/nclimate2940 Release of carbon previously locked in permafrost is a potentially important positive climate feedback. Now metagenomics reveal the vulnerability of active-layer soil carbon to warming-induced microbial decomposition in Alaskan tundra.
Cropping frequency and area response to climate variability can exceed yield response pp601 – 604 Avery S. Cohn, Leah K. VanWey, Stephanie A. Spera and John F. Mustard doi:10.1038/nclimate2934 About 70% of agricultural output variance due to climate in Mato Grosso, Brazil was determined by changes in cropping frequency and/or changes in cropping area rather than yield (the most common climate impact indicator), a study now shows.
Timescales of transformational climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan African agriculture pp605 – 609 Ulrike Rippke, Julian Ramirez-Villegas, Andy Jarvis, Sonja J. Vermeulen, Louis Parker, Flora Mer, Bernd Diekkrüger, Andrew J. Challinor and Mark Howden doi:10.1038/nclimate2947 Climate change may necessitate transformative adaptation of agricultural systems. Research now indicates when and where the cultivation of key crops in sub-Saharan African will become unviable. See also: News and Views by William R. Travis
Changes in large-scale climate alter spatial synchrony of aphid pestspp610 – 613 Lawrence W. Sheppard, James R. Bell, Richard Harrington and Daniel C. Reuman doi:10.1038/nclimate2881 The extent to which distant populations fluctuate similarly has significant ecological consequences, but can be difficult to investigate. Now research reveals the drivers of phenological synchrony for aphid pest species across the United Kingdom.
Temporally increasing spatial synchrony of North American temperature and bird populations pp614 – 617 Walter D. Koenig and Andrew M. Liebhold doi:10.1038/nclimate2933 The degree of spatial synchrony of many North American wintering bird species has increased over the past 50 years. This may affect ecological resilience by decreasing the potential for demographic rescue from interacting subpopulations.
Widespread range expansions shape latitudinal variation in insect thermal limits pp618 – 621 Lesley T. Lancaster doi:10.1038/nclimate2945 Research now shows that broad thermal niches observed in high-latitude ectotherms apply only to species undergoing range expansion or invasion. Non-range-expanding species are therefore unlikely to tolerate climatic warming at high latitudes. See also: News and Views by Caroline Williams
ARTICLES		Top
Meta-analyses of the determinants and outcomes of belief in climate changepp622 – 626 Matthew J. Hornsey, Emily A. Harris, Paul G. Bain and Kelly S. Fielding doi:10.1038/nclimate2943 Meta-analysis shows people’s views on climate change have only a small impact on their tendencies to act in climate-friendly ways. These views are affected more by ideology and political orientation than education, sex and experience of extreme weather.
Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts pp627 – 634 Nathalie Schaller, Alison L. Kay, Rob Lamb, Neil R. Massey, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Sarah N. Sparrow, Robert Vautard, Pascal Yiou, Ian Ashpole, Andy Bowery, Susan M. Crooks, Karsten Haustein, Chris Huntingford, William J. Ingram, Richard G. Jones, Tim Legg, Jonathan Miller, Jessica Skeggs, David Wallom, Antje Weisheimer, Simon Wilson, Peter A. Stott and Myles R. Allen doi:10.1038/nclimate2927 An ensemble of climate model simulations, as well as hydrological modelling and flood risk mapping, are used to show the role of anthropogenic warming on the extreme rainfall that caused the 2013/14 floods in southern England.