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Limits to flood adaptation

River floods are expected to increase under climate change, requiring adaptation measures. Writing in this issue, Masahiro Tanoue et al. estimate the damage from floods globally after adaptation measures have been implemented, known as residual flood damage, under different scenarios. Residual flood damage remains high in some Asian and African regions, suggesting a limit to flood adaptation in those areas.

See Tanoue et al. and News & Views…

Image: Per-Anders Pettersson/Corbis Documentary/Getty. Cover Design: Valentina Monaco

Editorial

Editorial | 30 September 2021

Powering ahead

Coal has powered the world, spurring development and the advancement of society; however, the time has come to consign it to the past and find new technology to support development and advancement.

Correspondence

Correspondence | 30 September 2021

Climate change, natural calamities and the triple burden of disease

• Mitesh Karn
• Muna Sharma

Advertisement Feature

Sampling asteroids for the source of Earth’s oceans

Space missions are sampling asteroids, returning rock samples that could help reveal why Earth has oceans — and life — at all.

Q&A

Q&A | 27 September 2021

Connecting the soil and the soul

Nature Climate Change spoke to Kostas Stasinopoulos, Assistant Curator at Serpentine Galleries, London, about the Back to Earth project and recent book 140 Artists’ Ideas for Planet Earth, and how its mission of connection, representation and action reflects the needs of the climate crisis response.

• Tegan Armarego-Marriott

Books & Arts

Books & Arts | 30 September 2021

Looking back to look ahead

• Alyssa Findlay

Research Highlights

Research Highlight | 30 September 2021

A question of the sexes

• Tegan Armarego-Marriott

Research Highlight | 30 September 2021

Different framing

• Lingxiao Yan

Research Highlight | 30 September 2021

Ice loss in the Pyrenees

• Graham Simpkins

Research Highlight | 30 September 2021

Drying up

• Alyssa Findlay

News & Views

News & Views | 30 September 2021

Do climate dynamics matter for economics?

Economic models of climate change are the basis for climate policy design. However, incorrect representation of physical dynamics in these models could lead to biased advice.

• Richard S. J. Tol

News & Views | 23 September 2021

The need to consider residual risk

Increased flood risk from climate change requires adaptation, but future protection may leave communities with residual risk that is overlooked. Research now quantifies residual flood damage globally, highlighting the need to lower costs and time to deploy flood management infrastructure, particularly in vulnerable regions.

• Daniel Eisenberg

News & Views | 30 September 2021

Measuring global climate risk

Climate change generates multifaceted and difficult-to-measure risks to human and natural systems. Now, research offers a composite indicator of global climate risk that may help track progress in addressing climate change.

• Robert J. Lempert

News & Views | 27 September 2021

Great tit response to climate change

While earlier reproduction in a great tit population is expected to help with warmer springs, oak tree health seems to influence their ability to modulate their breeding period.

• Suzanne Bonamour

Review Articles

Review Article | 30 September 2021

Emergent biogeochemical risks from Arctic permafrost degradation

Thawing permafrost in the Arctic may release microorganisms, chemicals and nuclear waste that have been stored in frozen ground and by cold temperatures. This Review discusses the current state of potential hazards and their risks under warming to identify prospective threats to the Arctic.

• Kimberley R. Miner
• Juliana D’Andrilli
• Charles E. Miller

Brief Communications

Brief Communication | 16 September 2021

Wave of net zero emission targets opens window to meeting the Paris Agreement

Current pledges for emissions cuts are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goal. The wave of net zero targets being discussed and adopted could make the Paris goal possible if further countries follow suit.

• Niklas Höhne
• Matthew J. Gidden
• Joeri Rogelj

Articles

Article | 23 September 2021

Residual flood damage under intensive adaptation

Residual flood damage (RFD), the remaining damage from floods after adaptation measures have been implemented, is estimated across the globe under various adaptation scenarios and climate projections. RFD remains high in some Asian and African regions, suggesting a limit to flood adaptation there.

• Masahiro Tanoue
• Ryo Taguchi
• Yukiko Hirabayashi

Article | 13 September 2021

Utilitarian benchmarks for emissions and pledges promote equity, climate and development

Climate mitigation will require allocations of emission allowances to nations. This study proposes a utilitarian benchmark to ensure equitable allocations whilst mitigating climate change.

• Mark B. Budolfson
• David Anthoff
• Navroz K. Dubash

Article | 13 September 2021

Projected ocean warming constrained by the ocean observational record

Ocean heat content is increasing, yet projections have not been constrained by observations. Using Argo data and CMIP6 models shows high climate sensitivity models overestimate increases; constrained projections estimate sea-level rise, from 0 to 2,000 m thermal expansion, of 17–26 cm by 2081–2100.

• Kewei Lyu
• Xuebin Zhang
• John A. Church

Article | 16 September 2021

Enhanced North Pacific impact on El Niño/Southern Oscillation under greenhouse warming

The North Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM) can trigger El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Climate simulations suggest that with warming ocean temperatures, the NPMM’s impact on future ENSO strengthens, contributing to increased frequency of future extreme ENSO events and their predictability.

• Fan Jia
• Wenju Cai
• Emanuele Di Lorenzo

Article | 23 September 2021

Enhanced hydrological cycle increases ocean heat uptake and moderates transient climate change

A climate model shows that hydrological cycle change drives ocean salinity increases, enhancing heat transport into the ocean and modulating near-term climate warming. This suggests that model spread in near-term climate sensitivity may be due in part to hydrological cycle and salinity differences.

• Maofeng Liu
• Gabriel Vecchi
• Bosong Zhang

Article | 23 September 2021

Drivers of exceptional coastal warming in the northeastern United States

The coastal northeastern United States is a warming hotspot, and observations identify a slower Atlantic overturning circulation and a positive North Atlantic Oscillation phase as drivers. Analysis suggests that low horizontal resolution probably hampers models’ ability to capture the spatial pattern of enhanced warming.

• Ambarish V. Karmalkar
• Radley M. Horton

Article | 27 September 2021

Double benefit of limiting global warming for tropical cyclone exposure

Tropical cyclone winds intensify with warming but the impacts depend on global population, which is likely to peak by mid-century and then decline. Impact modelling suggests that stronger mitigation, under which warming would peak after the population begins to decline, may spare 1.8 billion people from impacts by 2100.

• Tobias Geiger
• Johannes Gütschow
• Katja Frieler

Article | 27 September 2021

Prioritizing forestation based on biogeochemical and local biogeophysical impacts

Forests take up carbon from the atmosphere but also change Earth’s surface energy balance through biophysical effects. Accounting for these shows that tropical forests have the highest mitigation potential; the climate benefit of higher-latitude forests is offset by their warming effects in winter.

• Michael G. Windisch
• Edouard L. Davin
• Sonia I. Seneviratne

Article | 27 September 2021

Spatial variation in avian phenological response to climate change linked to tree health

Climate change–induced shifts in seasonal events are often studied at population levels, which can neglect the scale at which selection operates. Here, the authors show marked small-scale spatial variation for egg-laying timing of great tits and further link these changes to the health of nearby oaks.

• Ella F. Cole
• Charlotte E. Regan
• Ben C. Sheldon

Analysis

Analysis | 30 September 2021

Estimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate change

Different frameworks, most notably expert assessments from the IPCC, have been developed to determine risk from climate change over this century. Estimated risk scores quantified from the IPCC assessments show a substantial increase in global composite risk by 2100 for low and high emissions.

• Alexandre K. Magnan
• Hans-Otto Pörtner
• Jean-Pierre Gattuso

Amendments & Corrections

Author Correction | 03 September 2021

Author Correction: The blue carbon wealth of nations

• Christine Bertram
• Martin Quaas
• Wilfried Rickels

Publisher Correction | 04 June 2021

Publisher Correction: Climate mitigation through Indigenous forest management

• Alyssa Findlay