Blog

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Nature Index 2018 Earth and Environmental Sciences

Climate change is not the only research topic in the Earth and environmental sciences, but few researchers in the discipline work without reference to it. Just as we have depended on them to identify the problem, we look to them for solutions that will help create a better future.

Keeping on track    p545
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0223-9

How much CO₂ at 1.5 °C and 2 °C?    pp546 – 548
Richard A. Betts & Doug McNeall
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0199-5

Reduced heat exposure by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C    pp549 – 551
Andrew D. King, Markus G. Donat, Sophie C. Lewis, Benjamin J. Henley, Daniel M. Mitchell et al.
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0191-0

Extreme heat-related mortality avoided under Paris Agreement goals    pp551 – 553
Daniel Mitchell, Clare Heaviside, Nathalie Schaller, Myles Allen, Kristie L. Ebi et al.
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0210-1

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Nature Sustainability publishes significant original research from a broad range of natural, social and engineering fields about sustainability, its policy dimensions and possible solutions. It brings together novel research on the drivers of human practices and their environmental and social impacts, as well as applied research that identifies viable solutions — technological, infrastructural or institutional — to sustain ecosystems and the well-being of populations across the globe. Submit your research.

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Books and Arts

Elevating the public intellectual    pp554 – 555
James Bergman
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0186-x

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Feature

Planting carbon storage    pp556 – 558
Molly Hawes
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0214-x

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Research Highlights

Cyclones slow down    p559
Graham Simpkins
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0219-5

Mapping photosynthesis    p559
Alastair Brown
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0221-y

Aging policy priorities    p559
Adam Yeeles
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0217-7

Buffering sensitivity    p559
Bronwyn Wake
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0218-6

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News & Views

Negative-emissions hydrogen energy    pp560 – 561
Jinyue Yan
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0215-9

Moving flood risk modelling forwards    pp561 – 562
Elco Koks
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0185-y

Plants turn on the tap    pp562 – 563
Scott Jasechko
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0212-z

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Perspectives

Achieving a climate justice pathway to 1.5 °C    pp564 – 569
Mary Robinson & Tara Shine
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0189-7

Action needs to be taken to limit the impacts of climate change, however, human rights and the right to development need to be preserved. This Perspective weighs the risks of action and inaction on achieving a just transition to a low-carbon world.

The ability of societies to adapt to twenty-first-century sea-level rise    pp570 – 578
Jochen Hinkel, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Sally Brown, Jose A. Jiménez, Daniel Lincke et al.
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0176-z

This Perspective provides a comparative analysis of how well six cities and regions with different coastal and social characteristics and adaptation constraints will be able to adapt to sea-level rise, considering technological, economic, financial, and social factors.

Biological responses to the press and pulse of climate trends and extreme events    pp579 – 587
R. M. B. Harris, L. J. Beaumont, T. R. Vance, C. R. Tozer, T. A. Remenyi et al.
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0187-9

A press–pulse framework is used to understand the interactive ecological effects of gradual climate trends and extreme weather events. Australian case studies include population collapses, loss of relictual communities and novel ecosystems.

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Letters

Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets    pp588 – 593
J.-F. Mercure, H. Pollitt, J. E. Viñuales, N. R. Edwards, P. B. Holden et al.
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0182-1

New fossil fuel investments may become stranded if demand for fossil fuel declines due to technological change. This could amount to a discounted global wealth loss of US$1–4 trillion, with the negative impact for producer countries amplified by climate mitigation policies of consumer countries.

Global economic response to river floods    pp594 – 598
Sven Norman Willner, Christian Otto & Anders Levermann
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0173-2

Economic losses due to river floods are expected to increase globally in the next 20 years. Direct local losses and indirect losses propagated through a global supply network are derived.

Arctic sea-ice change tied to its mean state through thermodynamic processes    pp599 – 603
François Massonnet, Martin Vancoppenolle, Hugues Goosse, David Docquier, Thierry Fichefet et al.
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0204-z

Projections of Arctic sea-ice loss vary significantly between global circulation models. Analysis of the CMIP5 ensemble reveals that these differences can be related to background ice thickness and corresponding growth/melt processes, and not variations in the sea-ice model used.

Higher CO₂ concentrations increase extreme event risk in a 1.5 °C world    pp604 – 608
Hugh S. Baker, Richard J. Millar, David J. Karoly, Urs Beyerle, Benoit P. Guillod et al.
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0190-1

A 1.5 °C temperature target can have varying atmospheric CO₂ concentrations associated with it. GCM simulations reveal CO₂ increases have a direct impact on climate extremes, highlighting the need for climate policy to complement temperature goals with CO₂ targets.

Climate–carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement    pp609 – 613
P. B. Holden, N. R. Edwards, A. Ridgwell, R. D. Wilkinson, K. Fraedrich et al.
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0197-7

A reasonable interpretation of the Paris Agreement may well still be technically achievable without the need for net negative emissions or excessively stringent policies according to climate–carbon-cycle modelling.

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Articles

Relationships among conspiratorial beliefs, conservatism and climate scepticism across nations    pp614 – 620
Matthew J. Hornsey, Emily A. Harris & Kelly S. Fielding
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0157-2

This study shows that relationships between climate scepticism and indices of conspirational and conservative ideology are stronger and more consistent in the United States than in 24 other nations, with the majority of nations showing weak relationships.

The global potential for converting renewable electricity to negative-CO₂-emissions hydrogen    pp621 – 625
Greg H. Rau, Heather D. Willauer & Zhiyong Jason Ren
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0203-0

Combining saline water electrolysis with mineral weathering powered by non-fossil electricity could produce low-cost, negative-CO₂-emissions energy.

Residual fossil CO₂ emissions in 1.5–2 °C pathways    pp626 – 633
Gunnar Luderer, Zoi Vrontisi, Christoph Bertram, Oreane Y. Edelenbosch, Robert C. Pietzcker et al.
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0198-6

Residual CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels limit the likelihood of meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. A sector-level assessment of residual emissions using an ensemble of IAMs indicates that 640–950 GtCO₂removal will be required to constrain warming to 1.5 °C.

Arctic warming hotspot in the northern Barents Sea linked to declining sea-ice import    pp634 – 639
Sigrid Lind, Randi B. Ingvaldsen & Tore Furevik
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0205-y

The northern Barents Sea has warmed rapidly in recent decades. Hydrographic observations suggest increases in ocean temperature—particularly after the mid-2000s—can be linked to reduced sea-ice import, freshwater loss, weakened stratification and increased upward heat fluxes from the deep Atlantic layer.

Partitioning global land evapotranspiration using CMIP5 models constrained by observations    pp640 – 646
Xu Lian, Shilong Piao, Chris Huntingford, Yue Li, Zhenzhong Zeng et al.
doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0207-9

The ratio of plant transpiration to total terrestrial evapotranspiration (T/ET) captures the role of vegetation in surface–atmosphere interactions. An emergent constraint approach strongly increases existing model T/ET estimates with implications for river flows.

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